The UFC is back with another Fight Night card this weekend, but this time, the show is on the road, bringing us UFC San Diego on Saturday night. In the main event. Marlon Vera takes on Dominick Cruz in a pivotal bantamweight scrap. Plus, there are 12 more fights, giving us plenty of chances to place our bets.
As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Devin Clark +125
I’m still not entirely sure I love this bet, but I can’t seem to talk my brain out of it. On paper, it feels like Devin Clark should be the favorite over Azamat Murzakanov. Yes, Murzakanov has the gaudy 11-0 record, but he’s small for the light heavyweight division, and he’s overly reliant on his punching power to get the job done. Clark is bigger, longer, more active, and is a much more aggressive wrestler. Murzakanov is sneaky athletic and is good at finding a home for his leaping right hand. But Clark has proven to be pretty durable, and I think he has more ways to win this one. I’m taking a shot on the value.
Yazmin Jauregui, -205
I never like to make bets on fighters making their UFC debuts, particularly when they are very young and their opponent is debuting as well. But in this instance, I’m going to make an exception, because Jauregui looks to be the real deal as far as prospects go. She’s athletic and aggressive, and she’s got tools in all areas. I wouldn’t call her game “refined,” but it’s more so than Iasmin Lucindo’s, and while Lucindo has more experience, Jauregui has beaten far better competition. I think she wins in her UFC debut.
Marlon Vera by Decision, +130
While many look at this fight and see value on Cruz, I’m not one of them. Once upon a time, Dominick Cruz was a great fighter, but I believe that time has passed. He’s about to turn 37, and he’s had more knee surgeries than I can count. That’s a bad place to start for anyone in the combat sports world, especially at bantamweight.
Moreover, I think Cruz looked noticeably diminished in his previous two performances. Father time comes for us all, and I simply think that time is now for Cruz. Vera is younger, more dynamic, and a much more dangerous fighter. Cruz remains crafty, though, and he’s proven quite durable, so I think this will go the full 25 minutes.
Angela Hill by Decision, +350
This is a straight value play. Lupita Godinez is younger, more aggressive, and more powerful than Hill. But Hill’s proven to be a tough out for just about anyone in the division. While officially she has won just one fight in her previous six bouts, she likely should have won three of them. If that were the case, this line would be substantially closer. Hill is a decent defender of takedowns, and her length and high-volume can give Godinez problems. I think Hill is a very live underdog at straight odds, but given that eight of her 13 career wins have come by decision and Godinez has never been stopped, give me the added prop value instead.
If you’ve ever listened to No Bets Barred, you’ll know there is one simple truth in MMA gambling: Flyweight Unders Never Lose. We’ve been riding the Flyweight Under train for a few weeks now, and it continues to pay dividends. So we are going to stay the course this weekend. It also doesn’t hurt that 13 of Osbourne’s 16 career fights have ended in under 2.5 rounds, or that four of Nam’s past five wins have hit the under, as well.
These two dudes are going to come out swinging, and someone should fall down before the final horn.
Parlay of the Week
Marlon Vera/Dominick Cruz Over 2.5 Rounds, -360
As mentioned above, I think Dominick Cruz likely makes it the full 25 minutes against Vera, but I’m exceedingly confident he makes it past the 12:30 mark. Meanwhile, if Cruz finished Vera, I would be genuinely stunned, as Cruz is not much of a finisher, and no one has ever done that to “Chito.”
Bruno Silva is a little too juiced to place a straight wager on, but he’s still overwhelmingly likely to knock out Gerald Meerschaert. And if not, that means Meerschaert is able to get takedowns and tap Silva. This really does feel like only two possible outcomes here as 25 of Silva’s 29 career fights and 43 of Meerschaert’s 49 career fights have been stopped before the scorecards.
Angela Hill/Lupita Godinez Goes To Decision, -330
Eighteen of Angela Hill’s 25 career fights have gone to decision, including the past seven in a row. Eight of Godinez’s 10 career fights have done the same. Godinez has never been finished, and Hill has only been finished twice in her career. I would be shocked if this one doesn’t go to the judges.
Parlay these three bets together for +112 odds.
Long Shot of the Week
Angela Hill To Win By Split Or Majority Decision, +1200
And with that in mind, I actually love this Long Shot bet. This fight is overwhelmingly likely to go to a decision and with Angela Hill fights, that means thinks can get wacky. Hill has gone to five split decision in her career and she’s only won one of those, despite probably deserving to win all of them. That’s some terrible luck, and so perhaps she’s due. I foresee a fight where Godinez is able to score takedowns but Hill outpaces her significantly on the feet, which opens up a whole world of opportunity for Hill to win in a split scorecard.
Make sure you check out No Bets Barred if you haven’t already for even more betting discussion. Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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